Thursday, October 6, 2016

Leaked Monmouth University Poll: Trump leads Hillary / Democrats discouraged

Leaked Monmouth University polling memo: Democrats are ‘despondent’ / Hillary Unpopular with Minorities & Millennials

Monmouth University is a small private university in West Long Branch, New Jersey.


On September 16, 2016, someone (name redacted) sent a “secure email” to Patrick Murray, the director of Monmouth University Polling Institute (MUPI).

Note: On its website, MUPI claims that, “The Monmouth University Poll received an A+ rating from the polling website In 2013, it was the only poll that correctly forecast the outcomes of both the November gubernatorial race and the unprecedented October U.S. Senate contest in New Jersey, leading the Asbury Park Press to call Monmouth’s polling ‘freakishly accurate.’

Uploaded to Scribd, the email is described as an “internal memo leaked from a control agency to the Monmouth Polling Group at Monmouth University ordering them to ‘change the narrative'” because, based on MUPI’s polling data, Hillary Clinton is losing to Donald Trump.

Obtained by, the email describes Democrats as “despondent” about the upcoming Nov. 8 presidential election, akin to how they’d felt about the disastrous campaign of Michael Dukakis. There is a worrisome lack of enthusiasm for Hillary among “minorities” (blacks) and Millennials, who regard Obama as a “failed presidency” and Hillary Clinton as a “lying harpy”.

Note: In Greek mythology, harpy is a rapacious monster with a woman’s head and body and a bird’s wings and claws; a bird of prey with a woman’s face.

Though addressed to the director of Monmouth University’s supposedly scientific Polling Institute, the email is shockingly, unreservedly pro-Democrat and pro-Hillary partisan, elitist, and contemptuous of the “little people”:
  • The email openly talks of polling shenanigans, such as over-sampling liberals at 30%, instead of their actual 12%.
  • The email speaks condescendingly of manipulating “naïve liberals” as useful idiots.
  • The email proposes to concoct a “White People Are Racist” narrative to implant into the psyche of Undecideds — Americans who have not yet decided how they’ll vote.
Even more interesting — and encouraging for us — is the fact that the email admits that voters are a lot smarter and less easily fooled than in 2012, and that the Alternative Media have been successful in penetrating through the MSM’s deliberate obfuscation, as seen in:
  • “Birtherism”: 73% of Americans say they don’t know where Obama was born.
  • A majority of Americans, including Democrats, not just think Hillary Clinton is sick, but “Incredibly sick. Probably infectious and terminal.”
  • A majority of Americans, including Democrats, think blacks support Hillary for free goodies like phones and tablets.
  • More Americans think Hillary is secretly supporting ISIS than not.
  • A majority, including Democrats, believe that Hillary had called ALL Trump-supporters “deplorables”.
  • The MSM are in cahoots with Hillary and the Democrats.

Here’s what the email says:

It is imperative to create a morale boosting narrative in the liberal demographics. Our last published polling note gave liberals a “week before panic.” We must deliver on a turn-around in polls or risk collapse of enthusiasm. The data from our call / email sieve as well as legitimate polling indicates a level of despondency equivalent, roughly, to the Michael Dukakis candidacy. This is due to (a) Trump’s successful presidential-narrative surge and (b) a massive lack of enthusiasm on the part of minority and millennial voters who are beginning to view Obama as a failed president and Hillary Clinton as a ‘lying harpy.’ (word association testing focus groups). 
In order to rally the male-liberal base we will need to produce “resurgent” Florida polling. The conventional wisdom is that Florida will be the fulcrum state for the election and if it is seen as lost to Trump then we will have domino defections throughout the other swing states. Presently, our internal analysis shows the Democratic Firewall in extreme jeopardy. This week the news cycle MUST show Hillary regaining the lead in Florida. 
Strengths: Almost none. The voter-registrations in Florida are balanced but we need to have at least D+3 to have a credible story. We also need to greatly oversample women. This shouldn’t be hard to manage as they are more likely to answer the phone and chat. Liberal self-reporters are tanking (around 12% in real numbers). We are going to have it at around 30% which we can probably get away with. Below are the target demographics our screens should produce with minimal manual intervention.
Note: In other words, the email urges Patrick Murray, the director of Monmouth University Polling Institute, to over-sample liberals — at 30%, instead of their real percentage of 12%.
Weaknesses: Weaknesses abound. The first is that the birther message is penetrating: 73% of Americans are willing to say they don’t know where Obama was born. This was previously locked out via media shaming. Trump is immune so his followers are immune. The Florida geography is also working against us. Hillary has 53+ Field Offices and they’re empty of volunteers. This lack of enthusiasm is showing up in the voting responses and it’s killing us. The “cell phones” rationale will only hold out for so long. 
Opportunities: PPP [Public Policy Polling?] is burned. There have been too many leaks. Monmouth is less well known and less disparaged by conservatives. This is a good chance for you to build your brand both with naïve liberals and with some conservative moderates. The general reputation of Monmouth as a party-school will work against you here but we think that will be easy to gloss over with the chaos of the messaging.We also have a chance to build a White People Are Racist narrative. We’ve got some good story coming out of The Upshot with the headline that “Whites” are keeping Trump alive in Florida. If we can double down on that in the cross-tabs we can strongly insinuate that Whites (who code as racists in the media) like Trump (who codes as racist) and get an Ouroboros-Pattern established for undecideds. 
Note: Ouroboros is is an ancient symbol depicting a serpent or dragon eating its own tail. Swiss psychologist Carl Jung saw the ouroboros as an archetype, a collectively-inherited unconscious idea, pattern of thought, or image.
Finally, while we have been forced by intense public scrutiny to accurately report a Trump Surge, we think there is an opportunity here for demoralization by reporting a “counter surge” or “Trump Collapse” that will reduce momentum as the Trump narrative has shifted to talking about the polls. 
Threats: People are leaking a lot. If you don’t want Enten’s gang all over you, we suggest you lock it the fuck down. There are a lot of people poking around the edges that are on to things and a bunch of stuff out on the Internet that is more hit-than-miss. PPP’s extremely unwise decision not to disavow the leaks on Twitter has cost us a great deal of credibility and voters are a lot more educated about cross-tabs and skewing and we may not have as easy a time of it as we did in 2012.  
Finally, we know you consider Quinnipiac a “rival school.” Put that aside and stand down your hackers and arson-units. This is a team effort. If we lose this election we’re all fucked. Ensure loyalty in your staff by whatever means necessary. Keep appearances up. DO NOT SCREW THIS UP.
The email then describes the following unsettling “trends” derived from Monmouth University’s polling data (click images to enlarge):


From the above polling data, the email concludes that:
If these results hold, we are seeing a complete fracture in the national narrative. Hillary’s messaging has failed and her intentions are being read as subtext-for-text. Under these conditions it will be impossible to win a general election.
Then the email effectively admits what Conservatives and traditional Christians have been saying for some time now — that liberals/Democrats/Progressives see Western civilization as the enemy and are bent on obliterating it. It is their enmity toward Western civilization that accounts for why they are not bothered by Hillary’s lies and crimes, but instead regard them as positives — in other words, upturning evil into good, and good into evil:
The Liberal base is demoralized—-but will become more enthusiastic the more Hillary is seen as an iconoclast who will overturn the last foundations of Western Culture (as such, links to corruption and even outright crimes are seen as a positive rather than a negative). 
On the reverse side, the media has not been able to convince most of America that these allegations are false (the dual-channels have, unfortunately, merged and the conservative news firewall has broken down). The messaging to liberals is being consumed by middle America and they, for obvious reasons, do not like it.
The email then concludes on an ominous note, hinting that “more drastic measures” will have to be taken if the pattern of Hillary losing continues:
If the above responses hold for major swing states more drastic measures will be needed and we will need to begin preparations sooner rather than later.
You can read the email for yourself here.
H/t FOTM‘s Glenn47


  1. I almost don't believe that a human being wrote that e-mail. Are you sure a Sasquash or Big Foot wasn't given a job on Hillary's Team? This is insulting Big Feet of course but really. This cannot be true!!!!! How does a University professionally react to the receipt of such an e-mail? Does this University have formal protocols to take legal action against the author? What does the University Senate do now? I don't live in America and I don't agree to be a vassall. I assume that the DNC is implementing a formal 'dismiss and retract' process even if they are not the direct source.

    1. Since it is being done to promote the Democrat candidate over the Republican, why would the DNC complain? It was already outed for sabotaging the campaign of Bernie Sanders. What's new here?

    2. Professor Fetzer: I'm a great admirer of you and your work. I own a number of your works, which are the pride of my library.

      Is there a way to purchase Fetzer signed books, etc.? I would like to support you + provide my library a tremendous treat.

      Please let me know. Thank you and God bless.

    3. Options are available at, according to Dr. Fetzer.

    4. This comment has been removed by the author.

    5. Thanks to two readers' tip on how to uncover redacted information in that email, we now know the sender is Nate Silver, 38, a statistician and writer who analyzes baseball and elections. He is currently the editor-in-chief of ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight and a Special Correspondent for ABC News.

      Argument in favor of believing the email is authentic:

      (1) The memo is written literately, evidently by someone who’s highly-educated, e.g., reference to Ouroboros-Pattern.

      (2) The memo contains short-hand language used by professional pollsters: PPP (Public Policy Polling), Enten (Harry J. Enten, a blogger who writes about polls), and Quinnipiac (Quinnipiac University, a rival of Monmouth in polling).

      (3) I'm not aware of a denial by either Patrick Murray or Nate Silver or Monmouth University.

    6. I would say that this constitutes a denial.

  2. No one comes to her rallies. No one votes for her in online polls. Her small donations have to be padded by recharging old ladies. On election day the pedo-satanist voting machines will declare her the winner and all of this will be a distraction.
    Our only chance had been to hammer away at the machines, instead the narrative became "voter fraud;" again, a totally useless red herring.
    Everything we love has been stolen by the idiocy of handing our elections to corporations, it is the lynchpin of it all. Without real elections we are powerless.

  3. These criminals are all in on the Russians hacking the election thereby voiding the election to Trump. The voting machines are not connected to the internet and therefore cannot be hacked.

  4. And truth and justice patriots need to refuse to accept a HilLIar y declared victory.

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